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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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